THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

SPX update

The markets rallied all together like in the good all days of euphoria - stocks bonds gold . with a high participation of calls as the ISE ratio closed at 160 the highest reading in months which is good for our toppish view. so far we made almost the same rally as the one from July 1996 to the LTCM high in 1998 at 1190 (SPX) which is the extreme extension point of this rally. We have to overcome the severe resistance at 1163 which was the high after the 2003 lows for almost a year and 1177 which should be tough. We will top out in the above mentioned range with some swings within the next 2 - 3 weeks as the window dressing might get a dominant factor for the next 2 weeks as we still need the VIX to close below 17.40 on a weekly basis to complete the mission. Basically the market should turn rather today at 1163 and may try later the month towards end to make a new high to finalize this move.

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