THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Monday, September 29, 2008

Again the central banks need to cut rates - Reps vote against the 700 bil. bill

As I said earlier politicians are freaking useless when it comes to face the music - they are more interested in CYA then in making tough calls. The cost comes heavy aprox. 5 tril. have been lost within 24 hours. The mistake was again with Bernanke - its a tough thing before elections - but he needed to cut rates 2 weeks ago with other central banks to buy time for a good bailout plan. Its ruthless from the Reps to create the mess and than expect the Dems to bring the votes together. Bush is the worst leader America has seen in decades to say the least and he should live up to the duties of his office at least this time in 8 years. I hope the Reps do not pull this off to make McCain look like an hero when he convinces the 10 votes to switch.

We are reaching my targets far quicker than I thought - NDX is already there, we lost 10% in one day. We broke below the 1600 support and we can drop to 1440 now for the NDX and 1050 SPX and we can be sure if the bill is not produced within 24 hours ( I just read the earliest point to vote again will be thursday) we will see 50BP rate cuts by the central banks to get the market to snap out of the panic mode. Since 2 continental European banks collapsed today the EZB will be more willing to follow a concerted action the UK is anyway ready to go. In any case the bill has to be produced as well but this obscure bailout plan of wallstreet by Paulson will not solve the real problems at the end of the day. Fianally keep in mind in such an overall situation a PE(price earnings ratio) of 10 is the max the market deserves right now we trade at 15 times hence markets are overvalued medium term. Reducing stockexposure is the right thing to do - sell any rally in the next weeks and months.

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I am a professional independent trader