THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Volkswagen Porsche another insane situation

I think that VW and Porsche are totally overrated stocks, but as long as Porsche is in this out of mind state to catch a falling knife, it's hard to go against them. The next big sure thing is consumers scaling back big time from buying cars. Cars will be a retreating consumption product for years to come - only America might have some initial swap wave with people changing to much more fuel efficient cars. But economic circumstances might make it hard, since a global contraction is inevitable with a global credit crunch.

But the 'EGO' of the two Porsche (Porsche, Piech) tribes is involved in a power battle and seem to have lost any sense of reality. Nevertheless, they declared a week ago to purchase another 5% stake to get a controlling stake, which makes going short against them a tough enterprise. But at some point, they will have to face the truth or they take the whole thing private and will suffer privately.

One of their iconic cars, the VW Golf, was introduced as version 6 but is as matter of fact only a 5.5 and might not have the success expected since OPEL (GM) and FORD have improved sharply in design and quality, which is only part of better competition from Asia in general.

The money machine were also the upscale and luxury segments of Porsche, Lamborghini and Audi. With 100,000 bankers losing their jobs and the remaining ones with huge decreases in bonuses, they will have a very bad time and, going forward, it will get worse. As a matter of fact, Porsche is a short since the VW asset is a big part of their intrinsic value.


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