THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

wall of shame - LEH looks like the next to go bust?

Cramer had some candidates for the "wall of shame", but he looks from too low of an angle since the people who, by regulation, were allowed to act out as they did for Fannie and Freddie and the investment banks belong there (e.g. the Ex - President of the FED but Mr. Fuld is clearly a candidate as well). He did not have much time to fix what was left but now time is up. The whole company trades lower then the worth of the money management unit Neuberger - he has lost any remaining credit. He should resign this week to at least give his shareholders a chance to regain some of their money.

Technically, after selling Neuberger for $8 bil. and settling the losses of $50-60 bil. of toxic stuff, which should at least equal that amount, there is not a lot left to call a value. Since the losses will not have ended at that point, there is plenty more downside in writedowns. Nomura might get the whole company for $1.9 bil. if they wait a bit and still think its worth it. Fuld has violated the holy rule of trading and he, as a former trader, should know better. You've got to cut your losses. What on this freaking planet can stop the economy from deteriorating and that kind of foresight is something a so highly credited CEO should have. I do not want to mention Mr. 'Blackrock' and Greenberg who are full-scale supporters of Mr. Fuld.

LEH was a drag on today's market and adds to the negative spin as the SPX tests the Lap again and the overall picture looks gloomy but short-term indicators like ISEE option ratios look like a floor is in sight. If XBD can defend the 138 support, we might have the short-term bottom. Confusing, at least to me, is the very weak picture of NDX, but getting a grip on short-term moves distracts sometimes from the big picture. Check out monthly or quarterly charts and the things do jump into your face. Markets have to go lower over time -- far lower. Add the fundamental component that we trade at 16x earnings and put it into context with the world economy and you get the same information -- markets have to go down.

I was amazed by Mr. Buffett's call that markets are a good value here. Sure, their balance sheets are comparatively better, but still the multiple of earnings is far too high. We have some manipulated statistics, which he should know better, which do not justify any premium in this economic scenario. It's kind of uncomfortable to always be the messenger of gloomy outlooks, but I have to say that we have to face the music, since the band will play some wild stuff pretty soon.

No comments:

About Me

I am a professional independent trader