THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Sunday, September 14, 2008

technical outlook for week of 15th Sep - full moon

The full moon is on a challenging pattern conjunction with Uranus bringing volatile unexpected turns and in square to Pluto which brings destructive forces with heightened fear. The outcome so far is Lehman failing and Bank of America (BOA) overpaying for Merrill. The management ( I am sure the stock would have opened below 15) of BOA makes obscure aquisitions at too high prices - why pay a premium for MER of 100%, but thats another topic. For Temasek it must be a miracle they make good money - unbelievable. We have to look in BOA but it qualifies for a short they just threw at least 20 bil. out of the window.
The SPX will now finally test the 1180-1200 region this week and make temporary troughs within the next days. The VIV will test at least the 27/8 level but anything below 30 does not mark a real low. I doubt we are at a real low since the full moon is almost exactely on the axis of the Uranus Saturn Opposition on 4th Nov., which is a harbinger of the things to come. I saw a chart of the 1972-74 DOW chart compared with the current Dow amazingingly parallel but confirms my next 6 month outlook for another 10% down at least.
The asian markets will make substantial troughs within 2 weeks especially China is in for a substantial rally once the bottom is set short term. Coming back to the SPX we need to test the 1200 low of July and need idealy 3 lower closes beneath 1210 to mark the temporary low which will be depending on the XBD performance which needs still to dip below 120 and will since all institutions will have to mark down assets going forward with the firesale of LEH positions. We will see a small rally after this lows are marked but the drop of the US markets will carry on into Q1 2009 but in between we will see 1-2 minor rallies. The low in the target zone 1180 will be around next WE likely with quadaple withcching due this Friday.

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