THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Monday, June 21, 2010

part 2

3. The relative robust retail sales especially on cars seem to come from mainstreet divesting money ultimately as retail investors seem to be frustrated with manipulated markets rather than aroused as the manipulators hoped for. this is probably the better investment anyway but going forward saving money although not in a classic sense as the FED punishes mainstreet with 0 interest rates short and or rather along the whole yield curve.


Money Market Funds Plunge By $38 Billion In Prior Week, 1.5% Of Total, YTD Flow Differential Now At Record $134 Billion

Tyler Durden's picture

One does not even need to look at daily record gold prices to grasp the accelerating dollar credibility loss. A better proxy might well be the plunging assets at money market funds: in the past week these saw a massive outflow of $37.9 billion, which represents a drop of 1.5% in total money market assets. Even scarier is that this is almost half a trillion, or $456 billion in YTD outflows. From the peak, current MM holdings have declined by 28%, or over a $1 trillion. Speaking of losing credibility, the "money on the sidelines" argument is promptly losing it as well. Yet ironically even as half a trillion in cash has been pushed "elsewhere", the dollar, on both a relative basis (FX), and due to ongoing deflation, has continued to gain strength. US consumers have once again listened to the propaganda media and lost: whether it is due to the slow and unchanged grind in all asset classes over the past 6 months, or the sudden, massive losses from the flash crash. Either way, with gold at an all time high, we now know where some or all of the $134 billion differential between MM outflows and all other fund inflows, has gone.

Total MM holdings:

Total fund flows YTD, per Lipper/AMG:

4. Trading robots evolve to the next level - Terminator is about to get real and his first task is to wipe all trading accounts out.


Fast-Reading Computers Are About To Drink Your Trading Milkshake

Tyler Durden's picture

Add speed reading to the set of mad skills that rich robotic algos are now much better at than humans. The latest craze among the computerized trading community is using Johnny 5 to read through thousands of press releases in combination with some fuzzy logic and the 80/20 rule, to trade stocks pronto, even as plan vanilla Homo Sapiens are still stuck on footnote 1. The WSJ reports that: "Researchers have been working on an artificial-intelligence computer program designed to mimic the way an analyst uses financial news. In simulated trading, the program beat the S&P 500, and when combined with quantitative stock-picking techniques, it saw a return on trades of more than 20%." Unlike traditional number crunching methods to front run those armed with less than the latest SPARCs, this latest development will instead try to determine what the subtext of a given PR narrative is and trade it accordingly. It is unclear whether these programs are already in place, and whether they account for the almost universally wrong knee jerk reaction post any earnings and press release by public companies. We can't wait for corporate counterespionage divisions to reverse engineer these algos, and determine just what keywords and phrases set off Buy programs, and flood their press releases which announce 100% misses to expectations, yet result in flash dashes and inexplicably push stock prices up a few million percent. In other news, the market is now no longer about forecasting, predicting, and, generally, investing, but merely about being faster to frontrun/react/buy than your immediate competitor.

More from the WSJ:

To make stock predictions, the program does what is known as “text mining” — scanning large volumes of content and analyzing the words in it. Computer-aided quantitative funds already are plentiful, but they analyze numerical data rather than text. The new program is different because it attempts to simulate what has traditionally been a human activity.

“Our approach is more like the analyst approach, simulated by a program,” said Hsinchun Chen, director of the University of Arizona’s Artificial Intelligence Lab, in an interview with Digits. “You have an analyst reading papers, looking for clues that others have not observed.”

The program, which was first reported by MIT’s Technology Review, scans stock prices and financial news and buys or shorts stocks it believes will move more than 1% in the next 20 minutes. The system sells the stocks after 20 minutes.

“When you do long-term predictions, there are many variables,” Dr. Chen said. “But … you can have an advantage if you look at five minutes, 10 minutes.”

And before one says this is the dumbest thing in the world, here is the retort: the program's creator, fully aware that past performance is a guarantee of future results, note that based on backchecks Johnny 5 would already be richer than Jim Simons:

The system’s creators tested it using data from five weeks in the fall of 2005 — more than 9,000 news articles and 10 million stock quotes. During that test, the system, called AZFinText, had an 8.5% return on trades, beating the S&P 500 index as well as six of the top 10 quantitative funds. When the researchers used quantitative strategies to select a portfolio and then used AZFinText to decide which trades to make, they saw a return of more than 20%.

But that test period was selected for its lack of unusual market conditions, and Dr. Chen said the evidence is still early. He expects the system to be in use in the next two to five years.

Dr. Chen and Robert Schumaker, an AZFinText creator who has since become an assistant professor at Iona College in New York, also have been working on systems that analyze finance writers’ sentiment. The researchers also are expanding beyond Yahoo Finance and traditional news outlets to analyze blogs and investor and employee forums.

We hope these binary librarians learn to avoid the pages of Zero Hedge early on.

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