THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Monday, June 14, 2010

Sentiment update - yellow alert for shorts

First of all let me point out that one manipulation in the data - below is the chart of the Citi sentiment chart has been changed dramatically as now it shows to have been falling all May already but if you flip back you will see it did not move to the downside at all. I do not know who is to blame Citi or Barrons but this is not the first time I see such a thing.
Also the Rydex has come down to 85 levels thereby it will be alarming below 60 but we can summarize the sentiment as bearish now which will make declines hard to gain ground and rather signals a bottom is near of temporary nature.
The ISEE Ma's have come down substantially as well and look very close to a pattern we had in March 2008 where we had a huge put accumulation phase which was followed by a 15% rally before the crash stated 6 months later.
The only thing which will stall any rally for now is the Lunar Eclipse coming up on the 26th June which we had in a similar situation back in 1931 on the Grand Cross which triggerd the markets down in both instances. So my most likely scenario says that we will reach bottom early July around 11th making slightly lower lows like 1025 SPX before we see a rally up to 1150. Less likely is we have the low already in place at 1040 and are already in wave A up. That Ipreran sends 3 ships to Gaza makes the first option more likely.

excerpt

MONDAY, JUNE 14, 2010 Blank Image

INVESTOR SENTIMENT READINGS
High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.

Last Week2 Weeks Ago.3 Weeks Ago
Consensus Index

Consensus Bullish Sentiment39%42%44%
Source: Consensus Inc., P.O. Box 520526,Independence, Mo.
Historical data available at (800) 383-1441. editor@consensus-inc.com
AAII Index

Bullish34.5%37.1%29.8%

Bearish43.140.950.9

Neutral22.422.119.3
Source: American Association of Individual Investors,
625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611 (312) 280-0170.
Market Vane

Bullish Consensus42%43%42%
Source: Market Vane, P.O. Box 90490,
Pasadena, CA 91109 (626) 395-7436.
FC Market Sentiment

Indicator59.2%59.4%59.9%
Source: First Coverage 260 Franklin St., Suite 900
Boston, MA 02110-3112 (617) 303-0180. info@firstcoverage.com
FC Market Sentiment is a proprietary indicator derived from actionable sell-side trade ideas sent by the sell-side to their buy-side clients over the First Coverage platform. Over 1,000 institutional sales people at more than 250 firms participate on the First Coverage platform and have contributed hundreds of thousands of ideas since inception. Each Idea is associated with a ticker or sector and is tagged bullish or bearish by the creator. This data is aggregated at the sector, industry and market level. The FC Market Sentiment score ranges from 0-100 (0=most bearish, 50=neutral, and 100=most bullish) and represents a completely objective, real-time view into what advice the sell-side is providing to their buy-side clients


Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model
Market Sentiment

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