THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Sentiment update

We have a mixed picture in sentiment some reading below suggest we have reached bearish levels ( which would mean its time to get bullish) but they are not time sensitive at all and after such a severe correction a regular thing to happen. The crucial ones like the Citi and Rydex are nowhere near a bottom level hence plenty of downside scope. Also the MA of the ISEE are not at red flag levels yet although the 10 and 20 day MA are in the mid 90 levels. The bottom line is we are by price and sentiment at a volatile levels where 5 % swings in both directions are very likely for the time being as we also have astrologically a very volatile pattern right now, one we had that last time 83 years ago but the overall picture is rather heading for the worst in 200 years this summer scenario. Therefor the mantra remains sell into strength as we can expect much more downside with my SPX target at 900-25 ( which is not the worst case scenario).

excerpt

MONDAY, MAY 31, 2010 Blank Image

INVESTOR SENTIMENT READINGS
High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.

Last Week2 Weeks Ago.3 Weeks Ago
Consensus Index

Consensus Bullish Sentiment44%56%60%
Source: Consensus Inc., P.O. Box 520526,Independence, Mo.
Historical data available at . editor@consensus-inc.com
AAII Index

Bullish29.8%41.3%36.6%

Bearish50.933.736.6

Neutral19.325.026.8
Source: American Association of Individual Investors,
625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611 (312) 280-0170.
Market Vane

Bullish Consensus42%46%49%
Source: Market Vane, P.O. Box 90490,
Pasadena, CA 91109 (626) 395-7436.
FC Market Sentiment

Indicator59.9%59.2%58.9%
Source: First Coverage 260 Franklin St., Suite 900
Boston, MA 02110-3112 (617) 303-0180. info@firstcoverage.com
FC Market Sentiment is a proprietary indicator derived from actionable sell-side trade ideas sent by the sell-side to their buy-side clients over the First Coverage platform. Over 1,000 institutional sales people at more than 250 firms participate on the First Coverage platform and have contributed hundreds of thousands of ideas since inception. Each Idea is associated with a ticker or sector and is tagged bullish or bearish by the creator. This data is aggregated at the sector, industry and market level. The FC Market Sentiment score ranges from 0-100 (0=most bearish, 50=neutral, and 100=most bullish) and represents a completely objective, real-time view into what advice the sell-side is providing to their buy-side clients


Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model
Market Sentiment
ate NAV Adjusted N/U Ratio
05/28 1.127
05/27 1.032
05/26 0.915
05/25 0.962
05/24 0.972
05/21 1.042
05/20 0.979
05/19 1.167
05/18 1.180
05/17 1.167
05/14 1.078
05/13 1.192
05/12 1.252
05/11 1.006
05/10 0.876
05/07 0.915
05/06 1.015
05/05 1.082
05/04 1.052
05/03 1.292

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