THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Friday, January 29, 2010

NDX update

Left hand the weekly NDX chart which has clearly turned around as it is the first time since this bear rally started that we had 3 weeks of consecutive declines and even produced a monthly reversal pattern. We are meeting good support in the 1750/60 area short term and we might bounce from that level ( less likely) - I rather opt for the version where we first close the old gap 1725-40 and bounce from the 1670 / 1700 level towards 1800 as we will have a strong 1-2 weeks period by mid Feb. - we will have to take it from that high for the next wave down as we arrive but the basic target remains for a retest of the lows but that may be delayed to 2011 depending on the last jokers Obama might pull out of his sleeve for the mid term elections but there are not many left. Interesting though is that people sell of volatility into this decline which is rather very brave ( since inside knowledge from PPT may be the factor) or very risky as clearly more downside is coming down the pipe. A test of the 200 day MA around 1550 is the minimum target.

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