|January 08 2010 CNBC SQUAWKBOX EUROPE|
|By Bill McLaren | Published 01/8/2010 | January 2010 | Unrated|
January 08 2010 CNBC SQUAWKBOX EUROPE
LET’S LOOK AT THE S&P 500 INDEX
Back on December 18th I indicated we were looking of a top but due to the index showing support at a high level it needed to be proven as the alternative was a vertical exhaustion upward to end the trend. On the 23rd it became apparent the index was going up through the holiday into the New Year. This left 180 day on the 8th as a possible top and another 90 block of time into the first of February. The trend has developed a little 5 wave structure to the advance since the December low and is the only indication this could be a high. On the 18th I indicated not to get too bearish as the index could exhaust. So lets look at an example of an exhaustion from this style of trend.
LET’S LOOK AT THE 2003 TREND
You can see how the index struggled after breaking away from the consolidation and eventually exhausted into the top. A struggling trend always appears bearish but the index can resolve that struggle and exhaust up into a top.
LET’S LOOK AT ANOTHER EXAMPLE IN 1982
Again, you can again see how the index struggled coming out of a consolidation and also resolved to the upside with an exhaustion move up. So if there is a further move up it could develop into an exhaustion or vertical move up. If there is no top from the 180 day cycle then the index could exhaust upward into the 1st of February. But there is a cycle that can bring in a top today.
Last week we indicated the financial stocks had to lead the index and rotate into lows if the indexes were going higher. That is the bullish scenario.
LET’S LOOK AT THE BEARISH WORKOUT
This is the February 2007 high and you can see the same little 5 wave structure only in this instance there was a panic style of move down. Notice the 5 days of distribution, that would be a warning this current trend may resolve this circumstance to the downside. If this occurs the same circumstance could apply—a fast move down that is followed by a resumption of the uptrend into the final leg up.
We also looked the US Dollar index and said it would run to a minimum 78.75. It has hit that price level. The move down looks like a counter trend of 8 days so the index can still run to 80.16 to 80.86 with some resistance at 79.8.