THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Thursday, January 21, 2010

A very good analysis but does not give credit to the time cycle

McLaren is clearly a very good tech analyst but does not account for one aspect in his own charts all of his 3 samples were finished after a time frame of 9-10 months - which we have reached now. I also do not see the Astro equivalent which one of the best traders ever W.D. Gann used who have a very dominant message right now as we enter the second Saturn / Pluto square by the end of this month - last was in 1974 that time it caused a deep sell off and before that at the beginning of WW2 as I posted in an earlier version about the significance. Plus by Nov this year we even get a more destructive pattern that we had 1931 the last time the T-Square of Saturn/ Pluto / Uranus brought the big depression. In a few days the year of the earth bull ends which was clearly a Bull year and the white tiger will take over. In china people who are born in white tiger years are not invited to weddings as they bring trouble as is said about this year. this market is due for a deep correction very soon as we had an outside reversal week last week for the NDX and the price action this week so far confirms it but we might still need one lower weekly VIX close to get set for the steep decline the next days will show.

Excerpt

January 08 2010 CNBC SQUAWKBOX EUROPE
By Bill McLaren | Published 01/8/2010 | January 2010 | Unrated

January 08 2010 CNBC SQUAWKBOX EUROPE

LET’S LOOK AT THE S&P 500 INDEX


Back on December 18th I indicated we were looking of a top but due to the index showing support at a high level it needed to be proven as the alternative was a vertical exhaustion upward to end the trend. On the 23rd it became apparent the index was going up through the holiday into the New Year. This left 180 day on the 8th as a possible top and another 90 block of time into the first of February. The trend has developed a little 5 wave structure to the advance since the December low and is the only indication this could be a high. On the 18th I indicated not to get too bearish as the index could exhaust. So lets look at an example of an exhaustion from this style of trend.

LET’S LOOK AT THE 2003 TREND


You can see how the index struggled after breaking away from the consolidation and eventually exhausted into the top. A struggling trend always appears bearish but the index can resolve that struggle and exhaust up into a top.

LET’S LOOK AT ANOTHER EXAMPLE IN 1982


Again, you can again see how the index struggled coming out of a consolidation and also resolved to the upside with an exhaustion move up. So if there is a further move up it could develop into an exhaustion or vertical move up. If there is no top from the 180 day cycle then the index could exhaust upward into the 1st of February. But there is a cycle that can bring in a top today.

Last week we indicated the financial stocks had to lead the index and rotate into lows if the indexes were going higher. That is the bullish scenario.

LET’S LOOK AT THE BEARISH WORKOUT


This is the February 2007 high and you can see the same little 5 wave structure only in this instance there was a panic style of move down. Notice the 5 days of distribution, that would be a warning this current trend may resolve this circumstance to the downside. If this occurs the same circumstance could apply—a fast move down that is followed by a resumption of the uptrend into the final leg up.

We also looked the US Dollar index and said it would run to a minimum 78.75. It has hit that price level. The move down looks like a counter trend of 8 days so the index can still run to 80.16 to 80.86 with some resistance at 79.8.

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