THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

part 2

3. This is one possibility to identify the big pattern the other is as ı have presented in last weeks post rather a parallel to the events of 1900-1911. which comes to a similar conclusion after all.

excerpt from

Before the chart, a little background:

Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.

So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.

No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:

4. The market may oscillate for a few more days around this lvels before entering the correction but the evidence of extreme levels in sentiment and price exhaustion is reached for now.


Top Time?

A reader dropped a note yesterday wondering if the intraday high Monday of the Dow at 11,2558.01 would be sufficient for me to stand up and scream "The Top Is In - Run from the Street!"

After patiently disclaiming that this site doesn't offer financial advice (although I am short a bit of financial stock options in my personal account and may add to that position this week) I told this person that I'd address the topic in this morning's column, so here's the answer.

Yes, it's sufficient but a much better case would be made if we could have a weekly print close over 10,241 (Landry) or 11,244 (Ure) or toss your own darts as you will. I moved money from bank to my trading account this morning and may dollar cost average into more put options (the kind of option that can become profitable when the underlying security drops in price.

Oh, sure, futures are down a tad...but what do you expect? Could they continue to rally? Maybe, but AGAIN: "Old sayings on Wall Street like "Sell in May and Go Away!": don't become old sayings because they're full-o-crap, know what I mean?

We're also only 9-days from the predictive linguistics 'hot' date of May 6th which may present a pre-echo of things to come. Or, maybe British voters will come to their senses that day and turn out Gordo the Gold Seller and his ilk...although that's doubtful.

The British Isles are known for sheep production, or so I thought. But a quick glance at M.L. Ryder's work "The History of Sheep Breeds in Britain" doesn't mention Gordo's Labour cronies for reasons I can only guess.


Another reason the futures may not be so chipper this morning is that the so-called Financial Overhaul Bill looks to be stalled. Gee, golly, couldn't have happened to a nice bunch of people. NOT.


Then there's the thoughtful Eric Sprott piece (from Sprott Asset Management) that explains how problems like Greece propagate systemically: "Weakness Begets Weakness: from Banks to Sovereigns to Banks".

Can't help noticing the latest cover of Martin Armstrong's latest post "the Paradox of Solution" also features this circular reference problem.

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