THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Friday, February 18, 2011

part 2

3. Another peace nobel prize for Obama? - the watcher of democracy in the middle east - after all we really get some 'change' but probably not the one he had in his mind.


excerpt



Follow News Of Live Shooting In Bahrain On Al Jazeera

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The situation in Bahrain is now critical, with live fire raining (literally: the army is shooting from helicopters on citizens and journalists) on protesters, resulting in dozens killed, even as Libya (9th largest crude reserves in the world) is rumored to be in a comparable situation. The countdown on Saudi Arabia is now on. Watch the latest development at Al Jazeera which is now broadcasting live from Manama.
And from the New York Times:
Government forces opened fire on hundreds of mourners marching toward Pearl Square Friday, sending people running away in panic amid the boom of concussion grenades.
A Western official quoted a witness saying that the shooters were from the military, not the police, and that protesters began dropping to the ground after the firing started.
It was not immediately clear if the army was using live ammunition or rubber bullets to fire at the crowd, mostly young men who had been part of a funeral procession for protesters killed earlier in a crackdown by police on their peaceful revolt against the government.
Minutes later, forces in a helicopter fired on a reporter and videographer who were shooting a video on the latest violence.
That earlier crackdown killed at least five people and, once again, left the Obama administration in the uncomfortable position of dealing with a strategic Arab ally locked in a showdown with its people.
On Thursday, the masses of once-peaceful protesters were transformed into a mob of angry mourners chanting slogans like “death to Khalifa,” the king, while the opposition withdrew from the Parliament and demanded that the government step down. At the main hospital following the violence, thousands gathered screaming, crying and collapsing in grief.
On Friday, the funerals created a potential new flashpoint as mourners chanted antigovernment slogans. In the village of Sitra, south of Manama, a crowd of thousands accompanied the coffins of Ali Mansour Ahmed Khudair, 53, and Mahmoud Makki Abutaki, 22, both killed by shotgun fire on Thursday.

4 Trouble ahead in the EU as Jupiter / Pluto square is about to peak next week- still people keep buying Euro as the chart still suggest another test of the 1.38 level. On the other hand I never thought America let the Dollar be strong for long just as long as Bond auctions were marketable to foreigners but now with evident inflation pressure
excerpt 1
The CPI Sham Revealed  (Again, and again, and...)
A reader in Ireland says people need to look at the MIT Billion Prices Project which shows (if you care to think, and that may only be the both of us) that as of 1/1/2011, the billion prices index was at 101.1223 and as of Wednesday of this week it was 102.454.

That's 1.3317% inflation (for everything in the US) in about 47-days.  Which means what?

Well, given there are 7.7659... 47-day periods in a year, we can set our inflation expectations presently on at least 10.34%. 

the EU takes an expensive Euro which they will tolerate for now as it dampens the inflation for now and makes the Chinese imports cheaper while only the Germans will have a real competitive disadvantage in the global export game. Problem for all is though the inflation will bring down the house of cards on which the ponzi scam is build as bonds will drop sharply at some point.


Portugal "Insolvency Sweeping Under The Rug" - Friday Edition





It's a day ending in Y. Meaning it is time for the ECB to go ahead and sweep another billion or so Portuguese bonds under the rug. Because you can't have the 10 Year yield at all time highs (as in yesterday) and for that relentless stream of lies emanating from every ECB bureaucrat's orifice to be taken seriously, can you. We give the ECB another month before they realize what the SNB figured out long ago: it's best to give up when it comes to direct market manipulation. We are confident Portuguese bonds will hit another all time high yield by the middle of next week. And at some point European taxpayers may just ask what all their money is being spent on.


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More On That European Liquidity Crisis: A Sudden Surge In Dollar Funding Needs?





The most amusing explanation we have read so far for the dramatic spike in punitive MLF borrowing over the past two days is that there has been a "fat finger" from a bank which indicated a too low allocation at the last term MRO. In other words, someone moved the decimal comma and now has to pay an additional 100 basis points of interest (annually) on €16 billion in borrowings. Citi's Jurgen Michels explains it best: "After the strong use of the ECB’s marginal lending facility yesterday by €15bn there is a further increase in the use of the facility to €16bn today. This suggests that some banks have not tapped enough liquidity in the ECB’s Main Refinancing Operation (MRO) on Tuesday, which was allotted on Wednesday. The MRO – which is still provided with full allotment – only had a modest use of €137 bn. Comment: Unless the ECB provides term-liquidity until the end of the running MRO (next Tuesday) we will continue to see a high use of the marginal lending facility." In other words: the ongoing surge in the MLF borrowings is now priced in. And to confirm just how clueless in reading market information CNBC is, the Comcast station looked at flat Euribor as an indication of market calmness. Unfortunately, as European banks have bypassed borrowing from each other (for about a year now) and go straight to the ECB either directly or via collateral pledges, as a lender of first and last resort, Euribor is about as useful as you know what on a nun. We present another stress indicator, which however is much more difficult to replicate: European Commercial Paper, denominated in dollars. And the surge there is unmistakable.

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