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Monday, May 17, 2010

Bovespa update

Brasil has clearly topped out at a classic double top level after a 130% rally on domestic currency count. Being in a distribution pattern with 6000 as a trading support for the next weeks. Expect a trading range of 6600 -6000 for the next 3 weeks. Brasil is very dependent on China as one of the main commodity suppliers which does not hold good prospects going forward. Another BRIC country which is in very cyclical dependence of commodity demand and prices which makes them very vulnerable going forward especially as Lula's presidential term ends in OCT 2010.
Basic approach sell any strength going forward as a big decline in the second half this year is almost a warranted trend towards 5000 as a minimum target.

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