THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

SPX weekly update

The Monday turned out as expected and rallied in the biggest possible magnitude. Volatile zigzags kind of mark bigger tops and we still have a 33% probability that we might even get a brief new high before it starts but for now I stick with the scenario we did already as the MACD is about to produce a bearish divergence combined with many other factors but we need to have this weeks close to be lower in order to confirm. Again we see how tricky Mercury retrogade periods are as signals do not seem to be reliable- one more week for that one. The 200 MA is identical with the 61.8 % retracement and the trend-channel resistance which should keep the bulls in control and we have another dichotomical event going for the bears whenever the weekly 50 week MA crosses the 200 week MA you get a countertrend move of substance which appeared for the NDX100 and the move starts within very short time. The NDX is the driver of this rally and has made 100% from the lows and its top indicator is AAPL which may have topped out for now as well.

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