THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Friday, May 28, 2010

Friday brainstorming - red alert reminder

1. Yesterday we closed at the high which is a classic short covering pattern and you may remember 10th May where we did almost exactly the same - you may also recall what happened on the 13th which is pretty much what we will do early next week heading down again. As things are heating up badly in Korea we have plenty of clusters with potential triggers of risk reversion as the market is very fragile. Technically we made the rebound I expected from the 1045/50 area and my max target remains at 1120 which still can be reached on Tuesday. Todays Full Moon in Sagittarius which is positive for stocks kept markets up and is always bound in a window of 3 days prior and 3 days after it occurs but we are heading for a very negative time cluster probably the worst we have had in 200 years end of June through July with Solar and Lunar eclipses which will effect markets deeply and the Dollar on the negative side. I have tried to explain that information a few times in earlier blogs here from a different source the same message - remember I put out DEFCON 5 a few weeks back around 1140 up to 1220 SPX and urged to get short


Good Moon/Bad Moon

Got a pet theory going into the open of trading in the US market today - which came through with a screaming 284 point advance on the Dow yesterday which was even better than the 200-I was expecting. The theory goes like this: People are crazy around the full moon. In fact, I think it was Steve Puetz who first noticed the effect.

Let me quote from a June 2001 article from

"Several years back, a cycle watcher named Steve Puetz attempted to see if eclipses and market crashes were somehow related. He studied eight of the greatest crashes in financial history, from the Holland Tulip Mania of 1637 to the Nikkei of 1990. He found that market crashes tend to occur near full moons, and that the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse, when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse. Puetz found that all eight crashes occurred six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse. The odds of that being a coincidence, Puetz calculated, are less than 1 in 127,000."

The rest of this Paul Shread article is a must-read if you're not familiar with Puetz work.

About here, you may be asking yourself "With the futures up, and everything looking rosy again, why would old Gloomster George dredge up a story out of 2001 for me to read?"

Assuming you don't have your Celestecomp V (or StarPilot) handheld navigation computer fired up for your sunrise sun shots to see if your home is where it should be, here's the deal: The NASA Eclipse web site says we have a total solar eclipse coming up on July 11th.

And that means the next full moon after July 11th will come July 26th. But while it may be tempting to sit on the sidelines until then, there's also some correlation between madness and full moons which is why - at the peak of the market today - or near it as I can time things, I will go 'all in' with the few "play dollars" I have in paper assets.

Since I'll be playing either very long expiration (2011) put options on selected financial stocks, or the triple bear financial stock ETF, I'll have plenty of time to watch and wait.

If Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner can print money, I figure George can, too. And this is how I plan to do it.

CAVEAT: This is not financial advise: I'm a wild-eyed, hard drinkin, cussin', no good, steel-for-guts, options player with more losses than sense. But when I have gains? Well, they've been pretty good.


Speaking of matters aloft and their relationship to markets, please try to remember that just because I don't continually write about what's coming astrologically, doesn't mean I'm not aware of it - and give it a wide berth.

I mention this since the rest of the financial universe seems to be talking about the forecast of Arch Crawford whose "Crawford Perspectives" is widely followed by astro-econ types who (wrongly) assume I'm an ignorant pig. While they may be right on the ignorant pig part, no denying that, I did cover Crawford's outlook in depth in our October 21, 2009 report right here.

To save you the trouble of clicking - it's Friday and you have to be tired of it by now - and to save me additional bandwidth charges for your incessant clicking, here's what I wrote in October of 2009:

With the Bad Part of 2010

Had a most interesting conversation with Arch Crawford last night about what's ahead, not only for the ugly part of this year's market (wait a week or two and you won't be saying "huh?") but also about the really ugly part of 2010; which is you want to mark it down should show up sometime between late July and Early August of next year by his work.

Crawford ( about $250/yr ) has been writing a financial newsletter for about 32 years and was "ranked #1 market timer for the 2008 calendar year" by Hulbert's Financial Digest. What's interesting about Crawford's work is that it's an astrologically based report - although other cycles are considered, too - which makes it interesting when a person (like me) is trying to line up periods where multiple predictive systems are all pretty much saying the same thing.

Just as the predictive linguistics work is pointing to big market moves starting as early as late Sunday (Monday in Asian trading time) Crawford's work shows there's a rough patch there.

But more worrisome is his take on the mid-2010 period. "It's about the worst we've ever seen," he told me.

How bad is bad?

"Well, when something is worse than the Revolutionary War, World War I, the Great Depression, and World War II, that's bad - it's the worst I've seen the charts in over 200-years.

As he explains it, there's Mars conjunction Saturn which will be in opposition to Jupiter conjucting Uranus all squaring Pluto.

Not that it means a hill of beans to me - I'll take a GPS reading, thanks - but because of the Pluto is where it is mid summer of next year the biggie stuff out there is likely to be planetary in nature.

Interestingly, this also corresponds to the predictive linguistics work what has the big showdown basically between good guys and bad guys there; a time when the global mass of humans will be seeking revenge/change/retribution from the PTB.

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I am a professional independent trader