THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Friday, May 14, 2010

Friday brainstorming - part 1

1. Goldman's snake oil salespeople are still telling the naked emperor has cloths although being proved wrong for over a decade like Ms Cohen ( who is a perma-bull and never sees it coming ) or O'Neill who claims China is the ultimate gamble - someone should give him a chart of the Shanghai market. Goldman might provide some close clients with insider trades but beneath that they have done a horror job giving advice to the broader public.


Economy to Slip But Stocks May Gain: Goldman's Cohen

Published: Thursday, 13 May 2010 | 2:42 PM ET

The US stock market should continue to move ahead even as the economy slows down, Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Joseph Cohen told CNBC.

Abby Joseph Cohen
Abby Joseph Cohen

A generally rosy forecast was tempered with a warning that Goldman remains under consensus for economic growth as stimulus dries up and an inventory build ebbs.

"Our feeling is that the recession is likely over," Cohen said. "Even so, we think that economic growth may decelerate in the second half of this year. The inventory boost is likely over. We think we start to see a lessening impact of the fiscal stimulus we've enjoyed the last two quarters."

Goldman Sachs [GS 144.65 -2.55 (-1.73%) ] earllier had said it expects the 10-year yield to drop to 3.25 percent, well below consensus of between 4 and 4.25 percent and reflective of a deflationary environment.

Yet against that backdrop the firm thinks stocks will continue to move higher, with the Standard & Poor's 500 [.SPX 1157.44 -14.23 (-1.21%) ] hitting 1,250 by year's end, about 7 percent higher from the current level.

That projection "doesn't mean we get there right away, doesn't mean we there in a straight line. But we think that gives us a sense of the general direction."

Goldman also is out of consensus on its China projection, but in the other direction: Cohen sees growth in China at about 10 percent per year even as other analysts predict a slowdown while the country combats both an inflationary environment and troubles in its real estate market.

2. Todays New Moon carries a few special effects as it is exactly on Sedna that is a new discovered planet which is said to be more evil than Saturn and just by watching that the market tanked within the last 24h seems to prove it. More intriguing is another fact it sits almost exact on Israels native sun which means big trouble for them - in case they attack Iran the odds are not good that the aftermath will be smooth for them since Sedna is even slower than Pluto hence he will sit on this position for at least a year rather 2-3.


Israel primed for war on Iran - Netanyahu deputy

Israel is primed for a war on Iran, a deputy to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday, in a rare break with his government's reticence as world powers try to talk Tehran into curbing its nuclear plans. Skip related content

By spearheading assaults on guerrillas in neighbouring Lebanon and Palestinian territories, the Israeli air force had gained the techniques necessary for any future strikes on Iranian sites, Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Yaalon said.

"There is no doubt that the technological capabilities, which improved in recent years, have improved range and aerial refuelling capabilities, and have brought about a massive improvement in the accuracy of ordnance and intelligence," he told a conference of military officers and experts.

"This capability can be used for a war on terror in Gaza, for a war in the face of rockets from Lebanon, for war on the conventional Syrian army, and also for war on a peripheral state like Iran," said Yaalon, a former armed forces chief.

Israel, which is assumed to have the Middle East's only atomic arsenal, bombed Iraq's nuclear reactor in 1981 and launched a similar sortie in Syria in 2007.

But its veiled threats against foe Iran have been questioned by some independent analysts who see the potential targets as too distant, dispersed, numerous and well-defended for Israeli warplanes to take on alone.

Israel's leaders rarely use the term "war" while publicly discussing how to deal with Iran, in whose often secretive uranium enrichment, long-range missile projects and hostile rhetoric the Jewish state sees a mortal threat.


Officially endorsing efforts by U.N. Security Council powers to step up sanctions against Tehran, which denies having hostile designs, Netanyahu and other senior Israeli officials usually speak obliquely of a need to "keep all options on the table".

Two other senior Israeli officials said U.S.-led diplomatic pressure should be given a chance. But they voiced misgivings.

"I believe that, by the middle of June, there will be international sanctions that will be watered down, with very low chances of being effective," Defence Minister Ehud Barak told a closed-door parliamentary committee, according to a spokesman.

"With that said, there is nevertheless importance to such sanctions, because the delay has only served Iran," he said, adding: "It is very possible that there will be other, more effective sanctions by a specific set of European countries."

Dan Meridor -- another deputy prime minister who, like Yaalon and Barak, belongs to Netanyahu's inner council -- sought to play down Israel's particular interest in having Iran reined in, calling it a global challenge.

"If in the end of the day, Iran does get nuclear, in spite of what America says and wants, this will have grave implications for world order, the balance of power and the rules of the game," Meridor told foreign journalists in Jerusalem.

In his address to the Fisher Institute for Air & Space Strategic Studies, Yaalon said Israel was in a proxy war with Iran due to its sponsorship of Lebanon's Hezbollah guerrillas and the Palestinian Islamic movement Hamas.

"There is no doubt, looking at the overall situation, that we are already in a military confrontation with Iran," he said. "Iran is the main motivator of those attacking us." (Editing by Angus MacSwan)

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