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Monday, May 10, 2010

An intriguing parallel to TARP

Todays bailout announcement re minded me of the events of end Sep 2008 when the TARP votes were due in the House and Senate. Well I found striking parallels.
Left hand the SPX Sep/ Oct 2008 on the 29th the market drops 10% in one day from 1210 to 1110 after the HOUSE rejected to vote on TARP makes it back to 1168 the next day on the prospect that Senate would vote for it. which it did. Well 24h later the crash began down to 825. That was due to Lehman but its still striking that a similar event causes almost the same price swings at the same level - we even have a chance that the aftermath will repeat to some degree although I doubt it will crash in the same magnitude within a week. Watch carefully tomorrows price action it will give a clear hint most likely what makes it tricky is that tomorrow is Mercury stationary day.

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