The market will soon enter a cycle that has been associated with some of the great crashes of history.
If you believe that lunar or solar cycles have any effect on the stock market, you might want to pay attention to this column. If not, you might find this column a little ... spacey.
Several years back, a cycle watcher named Steve Puetz attempted to see if eclipses and market crashes were somehow related. He studied eight of the greatest crashes in financial history, from the Holland Tulip Mania of 1637 to the Nikkei of 1990. He found that market crashes tend to occur near full moons, and that the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse, when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse. Puetz found that all eight crashes occurred six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse. The odds of that being a coincidence, Puetz calculated, are less than 1 in 127,000.
Puetz was not saying that so-called "Puetz windows" always lead to crashes, but that if a crash is going to occur, a Puetz window would be the likely time frame in which it would happen. Puetz windows tend to occur every year or two, while crashes are rare events.
The interesting thing about this summer is that two Puetz windows will occur very close to one another, according to cycle watcher Heinz Blasnik. The first window is June 21-July 5, and the second is July 30-August 7. If a significant top is going to occur in the market this summer, those are the likely windows, Blasnik says.
It is interesting to note that a Puetz window with a total lunar eclipse occurred from July 1-July 16 last year. July 17 turned out to be a major secondary top in the Nasdaq (4289), and the start of a sharp, 18% pullback in the index. However, the Nasdaq's relentless sell-off did not begin until the index marked a second, slightly lower top on September 1 at 4259. A second Puetz window, with a full moon that was not a lunar eclipse, occurred from July 31-August 15 last year.
Another Puetz window (albeit two days longer than the required six-week interval between solar eclipse and full moon) occurred in August-October 1998, right before the plunge to the lows of the Asian crisis. Others in January and July 1999 coincided with relatively mild pullbacks (10%-15% on the Nasdaq).
Whether lunar and solar cycles can affect individual or mass psychology is a subject that has been debated for centuries. Stock traders have long had a saying, "Sell the full moon, buy the new," and it is remarkable how often new and full moons can mark a turn in the market within a day or two.
Just looking at the last few years of data, a Puetz window appears to be most effective when it occurs against a backdrop of economic crisis or weakness. Given the difficult state of the economy and corporate earnings, the two Puetz windows this summer might be worth keeping an eye on.
In the next excerpt Merriman describes some pattern but has the tendency to be rather a bullish observer is my impression. Around June1926 when Uranus ingressed Aries the last time it had no effect on the upside - on e year later as Jupiter joined we had a 10% rise but keep in mind back then both were not challenged by Saturn or Pluto which makes it a complete different animal. Just 2 isolated samples 20 years ago when Jupiter was opposite Saturn markets dropped by over 20% the same is true for most Saturn Uranus oppositions
What a line up ahead of us. In fact, we are in it, the fourth phase of the Cardinal Climax as discussed the prior two weeks. On Thursday, Uranus moved into Aries, a signal for new inventions, new solutions, and new enlightening awareness. Everything could change now. It is a new day.
On Sunday, Saturn will end its retrograde motion in late Virgo, and start its new initiative back into Libra this summer and into 2012. As it changes its direction to direct, Saturn assumes greater significance in the world consciousness right now. In the markets, Saturn is fear (Jupiter is greed). On Monday (Memorial Holiday in the USA, and markets will be closed), Neptune starts its multi-month retrograde journey. Thus Neptune is also to be highlighted in the collective conscience. Neptune pertains to hopes and wishes, but as well to gossip and rumor-mongering and misinformation (sometimes intentionally, for the purpose of causing embarrassment to one’s opponents). Together they can correlate with great diappointment, tears, or an effort o tear down one's reputation via underhanded methods. Or they can coincide with a deeper understanding of spirtitual law. Both of these are powerful Level One signatures in the history of stock market reversals. Both have very strong correlations to the completion of primary cycles within 11 and 10 trading days respectively. Since the stock market has been coming down, we look for a primary cycle trough during this time band. It could have happened last week. Or there could yet be another 1000 point drop before this time band comes to an end, for with Jupiter and Uranus also involved, price moves are always more than we expect. But once it ends, look for a 1000 point rally or more to follow in the next few weeks, maybe even days.
We promised it would be a wild spring and summer. It’s just starting. And for those who aren’t emotionally attached to the events of the outer world over which they have little control, this can be an extremely exciting and creative time. On the other hand, if you are too emotionally attached, it could instead be a time of panic and erratic behavior. You may not have a choice in the events that happen in the world or in your personal life right now. But you do have a choice as to how emotionally attached you are to either, and hence how you will respond and what opportunities you will forge out of these experiences. Make the most out of them.
Jupiter and Uranus in Aries. Here we go through at least the first few days of September. With it will likely unfold a flurry of activity, accompanied by brilliant new thought and innovation. Everything will seem fast-paced, even chaotic. It is a new world, a new day, symbolized by Aries, the first sign of the zodiac. On the one hand, there will be displays of great confidence and hope, signified by Jupiter in Aries. On the other hand, there will also likely be outrageous displays of “macho-ism,” that wonderful American term that describes the male entity with too much desire to prove his brutish strength over others. It is interesting that in America these days, there is much attention being placed on the psychological impact of the “bully” when growing up. Bullying is a Martian term (of Mars, perhaps in association with Jupiter). Mars is the ruler of Aries, and soon-to-be temporary residence of Jupiter. North Korea lets loose a torpedo onto a South Korean ship and then promises to punish South Korea if anyone finds fault in this crass act of aggression. It is just the beginning. Boys who rule the world – or want to rule the world - are apt to want their macho-ism validated through intimidation of others. That is why the 84-year cycle of Uranus in Aries usually coincides with wars, or the build-up to wars.
But it is important in the history of stock markets too. As published in “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Vol 2: Geocosmic Correlations to Investment Cycles,” Uranus at the end of Pisces and into Aries coincides with long-term market troughs. In fact, the 4 cases of 72-year or greater cycles in British and U.S. stocks have taken place when Uranus was between 23 degrees of Pisces and 23 degrees of Aries. Did it already happen March 6-9, 2009, when Uranus was at 22 Pisces, just one degree before the sector in which this bottom has historically unfolded? We shall soon see.
And what we shall also see in the next couple of months, and even the whole next 1-2 years, is a possible transformation of the Federal Reserve Board. That is because it has its natal Sun at 1 degree Capricorn, and in opposition to its natal Pluto at 0 degrees of Cancer. As Jupiter and Uranus move together into Aries, they form a square to this FRB Sun-Pluto opposition. Perhaps that is why the bubble seems to be developing in the U.S. Treasuries, for aspects to the FRB chart correlate with the value of Treasury Bonds and notes. It will be most interesting in August when both Mars and Saturn move into Libra, opposite this Jupiter and Uranus in Aries, and forming a grand square to the FRB Sun-Pluto opposition. This is a signature of explosion or transformation, a symbol of termination or renewal. I wonder what was hidden that is to be revealed around that time? Maybe an audit would be in order after all, for whenever Pluto is involved, there is usually some sort of collusion or financial transaction that has been taking place that someone wants to keep hidden. If it comes out, it could pose a great danger to one in a position of power, or the one who made the discovery. And hence, it may never come out.
I recommend reading this excerpt from Jan 2010
ANOTHER MAJOR CRASH?!
BUT NOT RIGHT AWAY
The year ahead appears to us to contain the most powerful planetary alignments in centuries, not just decades. These are likely to change the world as we know it in ways that we can see only through a glass, darkly.
It is our fervent desire and hope that the extreme energies released upon the Earth this year will lead to an evolutionary leap in human consciousness. The concern is that they are rattling the fabric of our familiar universe, unraveling the ‘strings’ that have held together the internal, external & geopolitical appearance of our daily lives.
Our Mormon brothers and sisters are required to keep 2 years worth of food and water in their homes. Adopting such practices may save some of us from the developing exigencies?!
Although we are not expecting deep retracements until after the Bradley Astronomic Model turns down during March, and perhaps until other cycles peak during May, the near term is losing some of its multi-month forward motion, & there may be a larger dip ahead now.
Our prediction of higher highs in March are consonant with the recent historical perspective, and are confirmed by higher positive planetary combinations. If, after the March Equinox, market indices begin to erode, breaking trendlines, moving averages & various support levels, we will “Hit the Bid”!!
We have a dichotomy of ‘timing’ staring us in the face this year. It would be considered a ‘done deal’ or a high probability that World Markets will Crash again during 2010. The point of greatest exactitude of the general ‘meanness’ will show itself in late July and early August. During that period Mars will conjoin Saturn, both opposing Jupiter conjoining Uranus (you can joke all you want, but THIS is no laughing matter). Pluto will form a square angle to all four, making a T-Square pattern of extreme animosity.
The dichotomy arises from the Bradley Model showing the Crash period as down from March and culminating with this configuration. On the other hand, our Mars/Uranus Crash Cycle portion of their synodic period, which has contained Every Crash for the last 100 years, bodes the Crash period AFTER the completion of the massive alignment.
We will do everything but guarantee you that stocks will crash worldwide within three months of August first (that is between May 1 and November 1). It is expected that technical market analysis of data generated by current market action will assist in pinpointing most danger/opportunity as critical moments approach. The fate of the world is in the balance!
Only one caveat: There was a Grand Cross Solar Eclipse August 10-11 of 1999. Although a Turkish city directly below its path was totally destroyed a week later, with 45,000 killed, it did not obviously affect markets right away.However, asthat alignment dissipated, the market drop of 2000-2002 got started in earnest, and it was a bad one. When Saturn hit the angle of the Eclipse, the NASDAQ had its worst down day in years.
One early danger sign is the chart (above) of the VIX or CBOE Option Volatility Index. Notice that it is edging back down to lows of the last two years. That means that sentiment is gaining in confidence and money managers are not bothering to protect themselves against traumatic downside by buying put options. It isa ‘contrary’ indication. Similarly, Cash in Rydex Money Market accounts (not shown) are also at new lows for 20-24 months.
“25 And there shall be signs in the sun, and in the moon, and in the stars; and upon the earth distress of nations, with perplexity; the sea and the waves roaring; 26 Men's hearts failing them for fear, and for looking after those things which are coming on the earth: for the powers of heaven shall be shaken.” Luke 21:25-26