THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Brainstorming wednesday - part 1

New Home sales disappoint but that should be not a real surprise assuming that the economy is not recovering as the Obama boys try to make us believe. Furthermore it is a secret stimulus package as stated in an earlier post as hundreds of thousands do not pay the mortgage but stay rent free in their houses which is an additional income and might easily reach the dimension of 10s of bil altogether( 100k not paying 10k per year equals 1 bil - over time that should easily reach the number of 10 mio at least. For the banks it makes sense as they could not sell it anyway for below mentioned reasons plus a full house losses less value.
The New Homes which were sold at deep discounts are already handled and out of the way for bargain hunters - the only area you can make a bargain is the existing home sales segment as foreclosures keep rolling. Although banks have kept foreclosures down artifically for 2 reasons. One was to keep prices higher through lesser supply for the ones on their balance cheats to have higher values which might have wiped out their capital. The value of the underlying securities would have been under pressure as well - undermining the FED purchase of 1.3 tril MBS bonds far above value which they used to unload the bonds to recapture cash for free sponsored by taxpayers.

Excerpt

Full Housing Crisis Effect Yet To Be Felt: Economist


Published: Wednesday, 23 Dec 2009 | 7:53 AM ET

The full effect of the housing crisis has not yet been felt because foreclosures are not happening fast enough, John Geanakoplos, a partner at Ellington Capital Management, told CNBC Wednesday.

Foreclosure
CNBC.com

One of the remedies for the crisis would have been to write down the principal on troubled mortgages, as many houses get destroyed and lose value between the time the owners are notified they will be foreclosed and the time they leave, Geanakoplos said.

But mortgage loans that are securitized, especially the subprime ones, are not owned directly by issuers but by servicers -- separate companies owned by the big banks -- and this makes things more complicated, he added.

"I think we haven't seen the full effect of (the housing crisis) yet, because the servicers are not foreclosing that fast on homeowners… they realized they can leave these people in houses for a while, not paying," Geanakoplos told "Squawk Box."

"The servicers don't own the mortgages, they have no interest in cutting down the principals," he explained.





"Almost all of these people are going to end up defaulting and being thrown out of their homes," he said.

The fact that the government is not writing down the principal on troubled mortgages is a "bad move," Geanakoplos also said.

"The FHA (Federal Housing Administration) is giving out loans at 3.5 percent - we're repeating the same mistakes," he added.

2. NO idea how they fake this consumer sentiment numbers especially the inflation part but basically the way you address the questions makes the outcome very obviously in favor of the target. I do not get why people still can bear to hear this lies over and over again with a common sense everyone can figure out that this corrupt bastards are faking everything and to kick their asses is not that difficult. America need to implement real democracy come back to the roots of the constitution. Just the fact that Bernanke gets to be reelected is a slap into the face of Mainstreet by this Rockefeller gang. The FED has accumulated losses with its 2.3 tril purchases of various bonds of a few hundred billion - which they will never show until maturity. At the same time they are telling people they even made a few billions with TARP which is a lie as well.

Excerpt

U.S. consumer sentiment improved in December from November on some income growth and less gloomy job conditions, a survey showed Wednesday.

AP
Consumer confidence improved late in November, but it remained lower than in October.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said the final December reading on the index of consumer sentiment was 72.5, the highest since September. It was up from 67.4 in November and 60.1 a year ago.

But the latest figure fell short of analysts' median expectation of 73.5, according to a Reuters poll. It was also below the preliminary December figure of 73.4.

The gauge on current economic conditions rose to 78.0 from 68.8 in November but this was below an expected 79.1.

The barometer on consumer expectations climbed to 68.9 from 66.5 in November but was below a forecast 69.7.


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