THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Thursday Brainstorming - part 1

1. Now I rather see why my Oil call worked far better than my stock call ( we get a correction in November call til early Dec, it worked partly as we had a 6% correction SPX) - but it makes sense as I assumed that besides many other things the most important factor for banks to have the markets at the highs around the holidays ( the governemnet needs the consumer in the best possible spirit) - therefor everything will be doctored accordingly. Relatively low oil prices, stocks at the highs ( which they will be exactely at the holidays) and the economic data will be as good as it can be for this times ( we might get some ugly revisions going forward).
Well it started already the final leg up but with the New Moon 16th Dec it will pick up pace and produce new highs within 2 weeks - thereafter we should see a sharp correction.

2. Again a good piece of evidence from zerohedge how the government is trying to create the illusion that things are getting better. The chart tells the whole story its getting worse


Emergency Jobless Claims Surge By Most Ever In Prior Week

The number you won't hear mentioned anywhere in the Mainstream Media: 327,729. That is how many people shifted to Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs in the last week alone, hitting an all time record high of 4.2 million! So as everyone is focused on the benign picture of initial claims in the last week which was "only" 474,000, the number of people rolling off continuing benefits has exploded and is now a stunning 592,579 only in the last two week. Look for this number to keep going into the stratosphere as the 6 month continuing claims cliff keeps getting hit by more and more people who are unemployed and keep looking not only for believable change, but actual jobs to go with it.

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